Methodology
The indicators,
explained.
Three daily readings, five signals and an open backtest. Here is exactly what each one measures and how it has performed.
01 · Indicators
Price and timing,
measured separately.
The Off-Market Index tells you whether a rally is worth funding. The Explosion Index and the phase tell you when the market turns. The signals only work when you read them together.
Price · Off-Market Index
Is a rally worth funding?
Measures the return large off-exchange holders get for pushing the price up. High readings mean pushing is cheap and rallies tend to extend; low readings mean the rally is running out of sponsors.
- 1,000 the dividing line. Above it, buying pressure is worth sustaining; below it, rallies are fragile.
- 1,500 → 1,000 the zone where large holders typically scale out.
- Direction matters most: compare readings at each key turning point, not the absolute level.
Timing · Explosion Index
How strong is the move right now?
Measures momentum strength. Each time it falls back under 200 during an entry phase, a local top is in. A flip from negative to positive during an exit phase marks the key reversal.
- ≤ 200 in an entry phase: local peak, the classic take-profit point.
- < 0 → ≥ 0 in an exit phase: momentum reversal, the aggressive re-entry point.
- Read with the Off-Market Index: a peak at a lower reading than the last one means the move is fading.
Timing · Entry / Exit Phase
Accumulation or distribution?
Every asset alternates between an entry phase, when large holders are building positions, and an exit phase, when they are distributing. Phases are counted from day one.
- Day one of each phase is the most important entry or exit point.
- Only hold in entry phases; in exit phases, hedge or trade short-term only.
- Check Bitcoin's phase: alt signals are strongest when BTC is in the same phase.
02 · Signals
Five signals, two risk styles.
Signals are derived mechanically from the indicators. They are plotted on every chart and are the five alert types Pro members can subscribe to.
| Signal | Rule | Style | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steady Buy | First day of an entry phase | Steady | ▲ |
| Steady Sell | First time the Explosion Index falls to 200 or below in an entry phase | Steady | ▼ |
| Aggressive Buy | Explosion Index turns from negative to positive during an exit phase | Aggressive | ▲ |
| Aggressive Sell | First day of an exit phase | Aggressive | ▼ |
| Value Trim | Explosion Index crosses down to 200 at a lower Off-Market reading than the previous crossing: the move is losing sponsorship | Both | ★ |
03 · Backtest
What the signals did.
Every signal on every covered asset since 2024, scored against what the price did next. Nothing cherry-picked: losing trades and weak signals are included.
Strategy trades
Steady: buy at the close on a Steady Buy, sell at the next Steady Sell or at the end of the entry phase, whichever comes first. Aggressive: buy on each Aggressive Buy, sell at the next Aggressive Sell.
Steady strategy vs buy & hold, by market
Median across assets in each market. The strategy is in cash outside trades.
What happened after each signal
Average price change 7, 30 and 90 days after the signal. A buy signal counts as a hit if the price was higher; a sell signal counts as a hit if the price was lower.
Sample charts
Methodology & limitations
- Daily closing prices from Binance (crypto) and Yahoo Finance (stocks, commodities, Korea). Trades fill at the close on the signal day, or the next trading day.
- No fees, slippage, funding or taxes. Real results will be lower.
- Public results only use signals up to — (90 days ago). Members see the latest signals.
- Open trades at the cutoff are excluded from the statistics. The indicator history has occasional missing days, which can shift a phase change by a day or two.
- Backtests describe the past. They do not guarantee future results and are not investment advice.
Generated —
See today's signals.
The public data stops 90 days ago. Members see every asset, updated daily.